Significant Heavy Rainfall Is Possible With Potential High Impact Flash Flooding And River Flooding From Late Sunday Through Tuesday…


Heavy Rainfall Totals From 3 To 5 Inches With Locally Higher Amounts
Are Possible Across Extreme Southeastern Arkansas…much Of Central
And North Mississippi And Northern Portions Of Northeast Louisiana.
South Mississippi And Southern Portions Of Northeast Louisiana
Should See Rainfall Totals Ranging From 2 To 3 Inches.

A Large…deep Vortex Will Lock In Over The Central Plain States And
Will Send Several Lobes Of Shortwave Trough Energy Across The
Arklamiss Region From Late Sunday Night Through Tuesday. From Sunday
Night Into Monday…the Heaviest Rainfall Should Stay Across
Southeast Arkansas And Portions Of The Northern Yazoo Delta Region.
There Is A Possibility That A Mesoscale Convective System (mcs)
Could Form And Move East To Southeast Towards The Natchez Trace By
Monday Morning. The Region Could Get A Brief Break From Late Monday
Morning Until Late Monday Afternoon. However…from Monday Evening
Into Tuesday Abundant Moisture And Sufficient Lift From A Favorable
Jet Stream Will Produce The Most Significant Rainfall Of The Event.
More Jet Energy From Tuesday Afternoon Into The Evening Could Bring
Another Round Of Heavy Rainfall. A Cold Front Will Finally Move
Through Early Wednesday Ending The Heavy Rain Threat.

Vegetation And Warmer Temperatures Have Allowed Soils To Dry Out
Somewhat From The Significant Rainfall Events Earlier In The Month.
However…heavy Rainfall That Occurred Thursday Night Wetted The
Soils Across The Yazoo Delta And Portions Of The Big Black
Increasing The Risk Of Flooding For Those Areas. There Is Some Good
News…many Of The Rivers Have Fallen Below Flood Stage Or Will
Before The Rainfall Begins. An Exception Will Be The Big Black River
At Bovina. The Lower Big Black River May Also Still Be Above Flood
Stage By The Time The Rainfall Begins.

The Potential For Significant Flooding Is High With This System. The
Pattern Associated With This System Is Similar To Some Of Our Big
Historical Floods In Mississippi. This System Will Be Slow To Move
Out Of The Region And There Will Be Multiple Heavy Rain Episodes
Before Ending Early Wednesday Morning. It Is A Potentially Dangerous
Flash Flood And River Flood Producer.

This Weather System Has Plenty Of Moisture To Work With. There Is
Still Uncertainty Associated With The Predicted Rainfall Amounts And
The Location Of Heaviest Rainfall. Rainfall Amounts Could Be Much
Higher Than Currently Predicted. Those Living In Flash Flood Prone
Areas And Areas Affected By Small Stream Flash Flooding And River
Flooding Earlier This Month Need To Keep Abreast Of This Potential
Flood Risk. A Flood Watch May Need To Be Issued On Sunday Especially
For Central And Northern Mississippi…southeast Arkansas…and
Portions Of Northeast Louisiana.

Stay Alert As This Weather System Has The Potential For Dangerous
Flash Floods And River Floods.


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